Champions League 25/26

As declining as La Liga has been over the years they are currently still 2nd in this season's UEFA coefficients though just .031 points ahead of BL and this could ofc change today after EL and ECL games.

Real vs Bayern in QFs would be quite important for country coefficient and I expect Leverkusen will go out vs Arsenal (hope to be wrong but not likely). If we go through and Atleti won't bottle it (I will join the Cholo out camp if that happens against this version of Spurs) then one LL team will have a guaranteed spot in the semis.


In the Europa League Freiburg will probably eliminate Genk and could then face Celta (if they beat Lyon which won't be easy). Porto - Stutgart is a pretty even tie imo though would give a small advantage to the Portuguese team. Not an easy draw but I expect Betis to go through Panathinaikos and would then face either Ferencvaros or Braga so they have a pretty open path to the semis where they could potentially play Celta.


And in the Conference League I expect Rayo to beat Samsunspor and then they would play either AEK Athens or Celje (they are not the same team since Albert Riera left for Frankfurt). Mainz will probably go through Sigma Olomouc but would then likely face Strasbourg (or Rijeka). If both teams would go through then Rayo and Mainz would play each other in the semifinals.

So even if Bayern will go on and win the CL (they'll have to go past Real and PSG first though) which I think they are favorites for right now I believe La Liga will still be in a good position to finish 2nd and have five CL teams again next season (on a flip side this could also mean Espanyol and/or Getafe potentially playing in Europe which I wouldn't like but would accept if it would help one of them getting relegated but hopefully Sociedad and Bilbao will get their shiet together and finish top 8 besides Celta in that case).

I definitely expect a better version (can't get worse tbf) of Villarreal in CL, this year looks like they were just happy to be there and concentrated more on LL though tbf they had like 4 -5 longterm injuries which clearly affected them. Hopefully this summer they won't need to sell their best players again and will still be able to invest something in new signings.

And CL money should also help Betis (I think they'll finish 5th though Celta could sneak there as well) more than Bilbao (who obviously can't just buy anyone) this season. They have the oldest team in La Liga and should replace veterans like Bakambu, Rodriguez, Chimy and Bellerin (probably GLC too as he can't stay fit) with some fresh blood. Their priority should definitely be a good striker.

JohnN said:

we have a higher rated squad due to La Massia being good and players being too young, so market value is high.
we are a higher paying club due to some highly paid individuals which they don't have. we are about 2x their salaries.
also our spending in the last 6 seasons is about 1/3 of theirs.
this was an away ko leg, with 3 starters missing. And Newcastle arguably played on of their best games of the season and still only got a draw, by Barca which gave 120% against Atlético and Athletic.

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We always had a higher rated squad, mate. We always had better players than them. Those higher paid individuals weren't going to move to Newcastle even if pay was equal.
Our spending in the last 6 seasons should also include money spent on salaries. We transferred Pedri and FDJ before the financial situation deteriorated. We fought Chelsea for Kounde and got him(while "broke"). We enjoy a near monopoly on Spanish players - those players would play for Madrid/Barca anytime. Sure, there are exceptions, but mostly that's the case.
Even La Masia is somehow of a cheat code as lots of players from around the world would like to play there. How many kids would choose Newcastle's academy over Madrid's/Barca's?

What I'm trying to point out is that money wasn't the issue vs Newcastle. They don't have an overall better squad and we spent(are still spending) more on our current squad.

A couple of years not spending like kings have alienated our fanbase into thinking we're a midtable team.

For the first time in my life I actually was not actively cheering for Madrid to lose. It's probably better for us if they stay in the competition, as long as they can't win it and they definitely can't win it.

I can't see them getting out of their side of the draw at all. I really want to see them match up against Bayern, where, without any exaggeration, an 8-2 loss is genuinely possible.

There is no chance Bayern don't give them a bath. However, Bayern fans are super cucks for Madrid, so you never know. Wouldn't surprise me if they made a Tifo of a Real Madrid dildo at the Allianz.

If Madrid goes through, I see them also beating Bayern. Not because they are better obviously, but Bayern will have the mental disadvantage.

But I also feel that city can come back.

Horatio said:

I never propped up Reijnders. Was you me thinks.

Ah was @jamrock

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He is that guy, pep is just losing it.

Reijnders likely is much better than he's showed or being utilised as, but it seemed a bit of a risk from the off - signing a guy from Serie A - which is still a good league but hard to adapt from to the PL, though some have done it - and expecting him to hit the ground running.

I am still not convinced by him, but hopefully he can improve as the better City are the less chance Arsenal have of winning multiple league titles in future.

jamrock said:

If Madrid goes through, I see them also beating Bayern. Not because they are better obviously, but Bayern will have the mental disadvantage.

But I also feel that city can come back.

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I worry about that, too. Bayern are a much better team than Real Madrid, but that mental block happens often.

I could easily see Bayern dominating both legs, Kane uncharacteristically missing chances, and Real scoring two or three cheap counters or penalties or something.

Hope that ends up being wrong, though, if the games happen.

BJJ said:

Why are people not talking about Bodo? What a fantastic run they are having. They are playing fast, skillfull stuff too. Those Scandinavian genes are doing this team a favour. Most of them are physical specimens with good technique. While money is a huge factor in modern football, occasionally a team like this comes along and turns the football World around.

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A pipedream but would be amazing if they could make the final, if not Barca.

City don't have a very good team. Their last results to Tottenham at home were 0-2 and 0-4, that's a feat in itself. Come on... everybody expects City to somewhat recover the previous years form, but they are extremely beatable. Getting 3-0ed by Madrid's 2nd string almost... it's bad.

And with Madrid's luck, Olise and Kimmich will miss a potential 1st leg vs Madrid in QF. They will surely be suspended for 2 games for blatantly receiving a yellow card.

Between the overrated EPL cardboard monsters, their winner pedigree, and a set of coincidences, stars are lining up for Madrid again.

A little bit soon to be [=]**ing pants dont ya think?

City are still decent.. but massively lack consistency.

Fallen off from previous years though.

How many of that City team v Real would start for Barca strongest team?

Not many.

Bayern can miss their entire starting lineup and somehow I'm confident they walk past Madrid.. maybe even run over them

MonteCuler said:

Bayern can miss their entire starting lineup and somehow I'm confident they walk past Madrid.. maybe even run over them

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You have to remember Real Madrid voodoo though. We have seen this movie before - they are written off and pull something out of their arse. As I said before, they're very similar in mentality to the West German teams of the 50s to 90s - not pretty but get to finals and win trophies regardless. They just know how to win in the CL, regardless of their personnel.

It's not really regardless of their personnel. They still have many world class or very good players.