[MENTION=19224]raki[/MENTION]
Thinking about betting on Porto this time around. Skipped the last time around if you recall which turned out to be a good decision as Porto only barely managed a 1-1 draw against Moreirense away. The odds before that game for a Porto win were 1.50.
Tonight Porto are playing against Tondela away (worse team than Moreirense) and a Porto victory pays 1.50. Benfica are second in the league table and only 1 point behind Porto. Braga third, 5 points behind. Even Sporting have a tiny, tiny theoretical chance of winning the league title as they are "only" 9 points behind. Mathematically possible although it won't happen.
Tondela are 11th with 23 points. Only 2 points more than 16th placed Aves (relegation) and only 4 points more than the second last team, Chaves, (17th place). They have conceded 33 goals in 22 games. Only Aves (37 goals conceded) and Nacional (due to losing 10-0 against Benfica recently) have a worse defensive record if we exclude Rio Ave (34 goals conceded), Portimonense (34 goals conceded) and last-placed Feirense (37 goals conceded). In other words, they are bad defensively. They have scored 26 times which makes them the joint 8th most scoring team.
However their home record is not too impressive as can be expected from a team like Tondela. Only managed 14 points in 11 games. Only recently promoted Santa Clara (10 points after 11 games), Marítimo (10 points after 10 games), Vitória de Setúbal (12 points after 10 games) and the 3 last-placed teams, Aves (12 points after 12 games), Chaves (12 points after 11 games) and Feirense (8 points after 10 games) have worser home records.
What is the reason for the relatively high odds (1.50) for a Porto win? Sure, they have had a dip in form lately and Marega is out but they should be relatively easily beat the likes of Tondela, even away from home. The return leg against Roma will be played in 12 days, the Benfica game at home in 8 games and semifinal in the cup against Braga in 4 days.
I have not yet taken a look at the squad of both teams so not sure if Porto will be missing other players but I see an opportunity here.
In other words what is your take on this match?
Thanks in advance.