No sign of Ronaldo slowing down, I expect another 50 goal season. Ballon Dor will be close but I think Messi's World Cup will give him the edge. Classico is important too.
The thing is he didn't win the World Cup so I don't think voters will care if he got to the final. In 2010 there were 2 finalists on with Messi, including Snieder who got a treble with Inter, and they both lost while Messi, who had a good club season, won. With 3 trophies now including new UCL goal record and bringing Real's decima, the ball is in Cristina's court.
And classico is just a normal game. I don't think voters will determine the winner by watching just that.