We need to get past 7 teams to get top 8. A win by a few goals today takes us past at least 4 teams. So we need another 3 to drop points (Newcastle PSG play each other in last game so that's 1 less.
Another 2 is needed. Chelsea play Napoli away. Otherwise the others have mostly easy games. Maybe Atalanta or Atleti can drop some points. Spurs away to Eintracht could be it too.
And then that's it.
Atleti in Turkey might be a banana skin.
All Barca can do is worry about their own games and not focus on other things. A win tonight should not be taken for granted. But if they can win by two, or even three, goals, it sets them up nicely for the final game at home knowing a big win could be helpful.
Also, as people thought, that 'first four games easier on paper and final four harder on paper' look for Inter's schedule has proved that - sometimes - you can judge on paper. Took 12 from first 12 and now 0 from 9.
You cannot realistically finish tonight any higher than 6th, going into the final round. That is unless you win by 7 goals to go above PSG.
PSG can definitely be finished above. Can finish on 16 max, same as if you win both games. And you have the ability to make up the goal difference with how prolific you can be in front of goal, as their last game is Newcastle as you say.
Be better if their game is a draw. You'd be guaranteed to finish above both if you win both games, regardless of Newcastle's result tonight at home to PSV.
It will likely come down to GD if you get the 16. As FC B says the goals conceded has had an effect. Also, 14 goals scored in 6 games seems average by Barca standards. Though it is still more than 2 per game on average.
