BBZ8800
Senior Member
People told me a few times that I am relying too much on a past and stats.
But I like to analyze things based on a similar events in the past.
If our success ratio with Bplayers, for example 1 out 10 or 1 out 20 in the last 20 years, then I can't expect that from a current 20 players from a Bteam=5 of them will make it.
I mean, it is possible, everything is possible. But 90-99% (my estimation, not a fact) is that the % will be the same as always.
So, 1 guy will make it, or to leave the doors open=0, 1 or 2 current Bteam players will make it in some way at Barca.
Regarding Dembele, we know that he is not a finished product, but there are a few problem when you look at Barca's history in developing foreign players.
These are all young guys whom we bought in since 2000', who were aged 18-19-20-21-22:
2001:
19 years old Brasilian CM Fabio Rochemback. We didn't develop him. He ended as a dumb workhorse.
-- he was sold and loaned after 2 seasons, aged 21
19 years old Argentinian Cf Saviola. Price as high as Dembele's today.
We weren't able to develop him even though he played a lot. He was loaned/sell forever after 3 seasons here. His Barca's career (and his overall career) finished aged 22.
21 years old Brazilian winger/attacker Geovanni Deiberson. Price around 100M in a current era.
We weren't able to develop him. A huge flop. Stayed here for 2 seasons and was loaned after that.
His level of clubs in the end turned out to be Benfica and Hull City.
22 years old French Cb Christanval. Stayed here for 2 seasons. A huge flop.
Played only 49 matches in his career after Barca (he left aged 25).
2003:
19 years old Portuguese winger Quaresma. The next Figo. Sold after only 1 season.
2006:
21 years old Argentinian Cf Maxi Lopez.
Played only 14 matches for Barca in a season and a half, and was loaned/sold after that.
2008:
21 years old Uruguayan defender Caceres.
Stayed for 1 season, never returned.
21 years old Brasilian Henrique. Played 0 matches for Barca.
2009:
20 years old Brasilian Keirrison. No comment.
22 years old Ukranian Cb Chygrynskiy. Stayed for 1 season.
2011:
22,5 Alexis Sanchez. He made it, to some extent, but never reached true expectations here.
2013:
21 years old Neymar. He has made it.
2014:
22 years old Mats. He has made it.
19 years old Croatian winger Halilovic. Ended at Las Palmas.
Lately:
22 years old Denis.
22 years old Gomes.
22 years old Paco.
22 years old Digne.
22 years old Umtiti.
Out of 19 players aged 18-22 bought since 2000, only 4 of them made it:
22,5 years old Alexis.
22,5 years old Umtiti.
22 years old Mats.
21 years old Neymar.
15 guys failed to reach expectations and majority were sold after 1 or 2 seasons.
One more interesting thing.
Umtiti had 5 FULL professional seasons at Lyon before he came here (and before he has made it here).
Mats had 3 full seasons as a starter.
Alexis had 6 full seasons as a starter.
Neymar had 4 full seasons as a starter and key player.
Dembele had only 2 full seasons as a starter.
Semedo (another Robert's signing) had only a season and a half as a starter.
In a number of matches BEFORE coming to Barca:
Alexis 241
Neymar 223
Umtiti 170 matches
Mats 127
*************************
Dembele 79 senior matches
Semedo 64 senior matches
Conclusion: we never had a 18-19-20 years old foreign kid brought here who has made it eventually.
The youngest kid who has made it here was a 21,5 years old Neymar.
But when we bought him, he already had 223 senior club matches and iirc 30-40 NT matches for Brasil.
So, he was a kid in years, but he had 250+ matches (and lots of big matches) on his shoulders already.
Dembele has 79 matches behind him prior to Barca. Almost zero NT experience and zero CL experience.
My personal estimation is that a 21 years old Neymar was 2-3 infront of Dembele in terms of development and experience.
And when Neymar came here, he also sucked, but he had 250 matches on his shoulders and still sucked to some extent.
Then imagine how many years of development Dembele will need ONLY to reach a level of Neymar's 1st season.
Each player is unique, I know, but these are just my personal estimations based on some numbers and history.
Dembele is insanely raw and he is a kid in his head.
And yet, Barca is a club who needs top class performances right away.
People are saying now: this was his first year, I didn't expect much.
Well, I personally am not expecting anything from him for at least 2 more years.
But the question is: can a club wait THAT long (based on his 150M transfer fee, his wages and everything)?
If he'll explode soon (even though there aren't any logical reasons for that since he is a kid who needs 100+ more matches to come to some decent level), everything will be fine.
But too many things are against him (inexperience, injuries, off field problems, average displays) and yet Barca needs results RIGHT AWAY.
So, he'll need 100s of matches to develop.
And yet, Barca and EV can't give him that because they need experienced players.
A hint for the future for Robert and a board: don't buy 20-21 years old anymore.
Or if you do buy them, send them on a loan for at least 2 years since they won't develop at Barca surely.
Or... just go for 24-25 years old players who have 5 senior seasons already on their shoulders.
Replacing Ney was never going to be easy considering how talented he was despite some of the flaws he had.
It's going to be even much harder trying to replace the likes of Messi,Iniesta,Busi,Pique etc. Heck we are still struggling to fill the void Xavi left as well. We have been tracking Dembele for the last couple of years before Neymar decided to leave.
We didn't just decide out of the blue that "Oh he will be our Ney replacement" We tried to sign him from Rennes but he turned us down as he felt Dortmund was a better option as he would get much playing time and he promised Robert that one day he will be a Barca player.
There's a good chance that Robert was thinking of a Front line that included the likes of Neymar and Dembele together in the future, considering Messi and Suarez are getting older it's not out of the possibility either.
However Neymar decided to leave and we thought it was best to Bring in Dembele. He was 20 years old, and came off a really good season with Dortmund and we had an open spot for him. was the price Steep? hell yeah it was but there was no way Dortmund was going to let him go for peanuts.
Could have Robert and the club gone for more established players like Hazard? probably but there was no guarantee Chelsea was going to play ball with us in August of all times. However Robert stuck to his guns and brought in Dembele who thought of him as a future Barcelona player.
Dembele's career started off shitty, he suffered a bad hamstring injury that kept him out for months, he was robbed of a chance to get accumulated with Valverde's system and gel with the players. He came back but shortly after his arrival he got another injury which kept him out for 3 weeks.
Dude never had the chance to get going here. he had a slow start vs Girona but that was the first full game he got to finally play in a long time and he improved as the match went on and showed a lot what people were expecting.
and for today's game he had some positive moments with quite a bit of negative moments but we don't know if Valverde told him to not push himself as much and going by his post game thoughts Valverde seemed pretty happy with Dembele.
I'm willing to sit here and be patient with him. Hell I was patient with the likes of Gomes as well despite how bad his performances were last season. ( I even called him a raw Diamond)
You are talking a lot about how Robert has done this or that, how he has scouted this or that.
Well, I personally think that Robert is horrible.
His current record with Barca's signings in the last 2 seasons is horrible.
I personally don't believe that Dembele will make it here due to age, being a kid, a huge pressure, his IQ and attitude.
So, if Dembele will also fail, Robert needs to be fired right away.
His record is abysmal.
Let someone else scout players and decide on whom we should splash 300-400 Millions.
