Arthur

[Trickykid]

About Arthur, you can't neglect a history (and we can't say: our boards or scouts were stupid back then).
These are ALL Barca's signings since 2000 when a young player came STRAIGHT from South America (zero CL/senior NT/La Liga experience/Europe experience) to Barca:

2002: midfielder Fabio Rochemback, age 19, huge fail
2002: CF Saviola, age 19, never reached high expectations to be one future leaders of Barca (price 100M+ in a current market)
2002: winger Geovanni Deiberson, age 21, extremely expensive fail (something like 80-100M today)
2003: Cam Riquelme, age 24, fail
2003: fullback Sorin, age 26, mostly fail
2008: defender Henrique, age 21, no comment
2009: Cf Keirrison, age 20, no comment
2014: Rb Douglas, age 24, no comment
Can I add Marlon here?

2002: Gk Bonano, aged 31

So, I looked even back in 90s, to see whether we had more success:
1998: Cb Pellegrino, age 27, loaned for one season, we didn't buy him after that

It seems that the last successful transfer of a player coming straight from South America was from Giovanni (not Geovanni from early 00s) in 1996'.
So, basically in the last 20+ years, only 2 players straight from SA made it at Barca: Neymar (the best young player in the world back then) and Geovanni in 1996.

So, people here are often making jokes how Arsenal players are always a fail when we buy them.
Or how Valencia's players are also a fail.
On the other hand, our record with players coming STRAIGHT from South America is worse than a record with Arsenal's or Valencia's players.

The only "pro" for buying Arthur is a hope that according to numbers, sooner or later, one day we'll hit a gem (from the 1st or 21st attempt, though).
Instead of paying 40-50M for unproven Arthur, it would be wiser to pay 50-80M for some midfielder who played well in Europe for 2-3 years.

Not that I disagree with your assessment (I don't buy into it completely either, though, as times change, players change, clubs change and so on and so forth, so I won't necessarily trust history to be the one and only truth to consider when it comes to new signings), but just a few quick notes to your list:

I'm pretty sure both Riquelme and Sorin were fully fledged national team members by the time we signed them. I liked Riquelme a lot as well, but he clearly didn't fit our team at the time and was treated like shit by LVG. His time as Villarreal afterwards was great, though, and showed that he had a place in European football.

Rochemback wasn't a huge fail in my book. Decent player with a talent he never really unfurled.

I get your overall point by picking everyone who came directly from SA, but there's such a huge difference in the players on that list in terms of talent and expectations of a Barça breakthrough. If you chose to be a little less superficial, you'd unearth a much smaller number of hugely talented players into which you could lump Arthur, making the odds seem much less horrific than the ones you put forth.

All that said, I don't really know what to think of this potential signing. If the price is right - meaning significantly less than his buy-out - I'd say he's worth a punt.

 

[BBZ8800]

Where do you got those numbers from? They're hilarious. Not every 19-20 years old player costs over 100m. City got Jesus for 30m last year and he was the best Brazilian prospect since Neymar.

Saviola was 36M Euros in 2001.

Remember, that was 2001, when the prices were way lower.
For example, compare this and you'll understand how expensive was Saviola in 2001:
2001: Saviola 36M Euros
2003: Ronaldinho, around 30M Euros
2004: Etoo 24M Euros

Today, 24 years old world cup winner Ronaldinho would cost 80-100-120 Millions, right?
Well, Saviola was more expensive than him (probably like a young Dembele today).
23-24 years old Etoo (and scoring like crazy in Mallorca, a former Real Madrid player) would cost 70-80M today, right?
Saviola was 150% of his price.

Geovanni Deiberson in 2001 was 21M Euros.
Again, that is almost like Etoo (3 years later). That is like 60-70-80M today.

For a comparison, Cristiano Ronaldo was bought by MAn Utd in 2003 for 14M, which was very expensive for a youngster back then.
In 2004, Porto won a CL, and their key midfielder was Deco. Aged 27 back then.
So, he was something like Coutinho, Eriksen and other guys.
We bought Deco, one of the best midfielders in Europe for around 21M Euros (or slightly more).
Again, imagine if Liverpool, Tottenham win a CL this year. How much would Coutinho or Eriksen cost then?
So, basically, we bought the best CM from a team who won a CL for 21M Euros.

Now, go back 3 years earlier, and we bought Saviola for 36M Euros (that is around 175% of Deco's price) and we bought Geovanni for the same price as Deco.

So, yes, I am quite sure that Saviola's price was 150M back then (compared to a current era). (Saviola was Dembele of that era, the best young player in the world).
Geovanni was something like Sane, Lemar and similar. 80-100M guy.

 

[serghei]

Saviola was 36M Euros in 2001.

Remember, that was 2001, when the prices were way lower.
For example, compare this and you'll understand how expensive was Saviola in 2001:
2001: Saviola 36M Euros
2003: Ronaldinho, around 30M Euros
2004: Etoo 24M Euros

Today, 24 years old world cup winner Ronaldinho would cost 80-100-120 Millions, right?
Well, Saviola was more expensive than him (probably like a young Dembele today).
23-24 years old Etoo (and scoring like crazy in Mallorca, a former Real Madrid player) would cost 70-80M today, right?
Saviola was 150% of his price.

Geovanni Deiberson in 2001 was 21M Euros.
Again, that is almost like Etoo (3 years later). That is like 60-70-80M today.

For a comparison, Cristiano Ronaldo was bought by MAn Utd in 2003 for 14M, which was very expensive for a youngster back then.
In 2004, Porto won a CL, and their key midfielder was Deco. Aged 27 back then.
So, he was something like Coutinho, Eriksen and other guys.
We bought Deco, one of the best midfielders in Europe for around 21M Euros (or slightly more).
Again, imagine if Liverpool, Tottenham win a CL this year. How much would Coutinho or Eriksen cost then?
So, basically, we bought the best CM from a team who won a CL for 21M Euros.

Now, go back 3 years earlier, and we bought Saviola for 36M Euros (that is around 175% of Deco's price) and we bought Geovanni for the same price as Deco.

So, yes, I am quite sure that Saviola's price was 150M back then (compared to a current era). (Saviola was Dembele of that era, the best young player in the world).
Geovanni was something like Sane, Lemar and similar. 80-100M guy.

Not all prices go up like that. We paid on Umtiti for example in 2016, fewer money than on Chygrinskyi in 2008. Again, Jesus is a better talent than Saviola was and got sold for fewer money in a more inflated market. Plenty of good deals can be reached today as well. Semedo is one as well, just this summer. Highly rated RB for 30m. You can't apply a type of logic like 'oh, if it was 30m. 10 years ago, automatically add 70m. and you have the price of today'.

 

[BBZ8800]

Not all prices go up like that. We paid on Umtiti for example in 2016, fewer money than on Chygrinskyi in 2008. Again, Jesus is a better talent than Saviola was and got sold for fewer money in a more inflated market. Plenty of good deals can be reached today as well. Semedo is one as well, just this summer. Highly rated RB for 30m. You can't apply a type of logic like 'oh, if it was 30m. 10 years ago, automatically add 70m. and you have the price of today'.

Umtiti was 25-30M, right?
But we all agree that he was a steal.

Chyngry was 25M.
That is like 40-50 in the current market. A normal price.

Semedo is 50M with addons.

Again, Jesus is a better talent than Saviola was and got sold for fewer money in a more inflated market.

Jesus is a better player than Saviola only in hindsight.
As I have said earlier, it is "easy" to say today: xx player was a crap. THE NEW GUY is different.
Of course, since a guy from 10 years ago failed, so it is easy to say: a new guy doesn't have flaws from the old guy.
Well, he will have it's own 10s of flaws. (I am not saying that we shouldn't buy any player, but we need to remember some things).

Also, one more time about your part how Jesus is a better potential, this is how Saviola looked BEFORE Barca:
Wikipedia:
"Nicknamed El Conejo (The Rabbit), Buenos Aires-born Saviola made his debut for Club Atlético River Plate at the age of 16, and went on to be a prolific goalscorer for the club.

He helped River to the 1999 Apertura and 2000 Clausura championships, and earned the 1999 South American Footballer of the Year award. Still only 18, he gained a reputation as a phenomenal prospect, and was even regarded as a potential heir to Diego Maradona, in particular after he broke the latter's 1978 record by becoming the youngest player to win the Golden Boot award.

Saviola starred in the 2001 edition of the FIFA U-20 World Cup, held in Argentina. He was top scorer and was voted player of the tournament, as the national team won the competition; with 11 goals in seven games, he became the record goal-scorer in the tournament's history."

He scored 45 goals in 86 matches for River Plate. Aged 16, 17, 18 and 19.

As said above, he won the Golden boot, won a youth WC being the best player, named the best South American player of the year and being hailed as the new Diego Maradona.
He was Mbappe or Dembele of that era.

 

[Barcaman]

Giovanni was fail too. Only one who did well for us was Sorin and Neymar.
Argument could me made that many of those signings were made when club was a mess so maybe some of those guys could make it in different circumstances but yeah, that's speculation.

 

[SeloBarca]

2 years ago i might have said no.
40M for an "unproven" talent this year will be almost a bargain.
Arthurs playingstyle is worth gambling on imo, if he turns out good, it will be great for our system. Its a type we need so so bad.
If he doesnt, well, with the dreadful midfield we have had for years now, im ok with it.

 

[Horatio]

He is worth the gamble. Decent price, especially if we can shipload Arda and Gomes.

 

[stk93]

i can bet that samper will look better in brazil league than arthur

 

[JamDav1982]

i can bet that samper will look better in brazil league than arthur

Bet he wouldnt.

Samper is nowhere near good enough.

 

[Interlop]

[tw]946831916363276288[/tw]

30M would be good actually

 

[FC433]

We have got a lot of options; I hope we do not miss it up.

Goretzka - Arthur - Coutinho - Havertz - Aouar

We can also add these: Eriksen, Lemar, Fornals, Torreira, Saul, Savic.

I have always wanted Saul, but that is not going to happen unfortunately. Is D. Suarez done? Do we still hope that he can replace Iniesta.

 

[Messi983]

I have always wanted Saul, but that is not going to happen unfortunately. Is D. Suarez done? Do we still hope that he can replace Iniesta.

I see Denis possibly as backup winger, nothing more.

 

[FC433]

Then I think we should get rid of him and try another new talented CM. Aouar for example?

I am not saying that D. Suarez is not good enough, but what I suggest is that we should keep trying (selling - buying) until we find the perfect one. Keeping him without believing in him is going to hurt both sides.

 

[Barcaman]

Arthur doesn't even look good on highlights. At least for me. Gonna make an early prediction and I am rarely wrong on transfers. If we sign him he will be a major flop.

 

[Jombi]

Also, remember Gerson, the new Pogba.

He didn't turn into the next Pogba, lol.

Why do you go on and on about this nonsense when you've been proven wrong again and again? Not everyone believe every player from Brazil is the new Pogba, or the new Pele or whatever. Gerson played as a winger, was largely rubbish in the Brazilian league and you try to paint it as everyone claimed he was the new Pogba? Its like saying everyone believed Douglas was the new Cafu, so you'll argue that we should not buy any Brazilian right back ever again. Its ridiculously superficial.