B'dor is more or less turned into a CL trophy in past decade, was only saved by FIFA voters who appreciated the league more. He has bigger chance winning the FIFA award.
Anyway, I would say if all the winners qualify, Mpabbe is the one with biggest chance, so PSG is the team Messi won't like to see them winning.
RM has no one that can get it, Modric won't get again by winning CL, same with Chelsea tbh, again, City will be KDB unless someone have big international tournament.