Im still really wondering if we should go 451 or 442. I think both formations are easily playable with our squad and it might come down to the opponent. General the 451 looked really really fluid in our 1st half vs Hungary on saturday. Khedira, Kroos, Özil, Trochoswki looked really vivid there, outplaying and outpassing them nicely ... the prob was that they somehow didnt score from it, appart the penalty. Then when we ran the 442 in the 2nd half, the flow was much less, but it was more efficient when both strikers scored.
For the 451 i would choose:
-----------------Neuer
Lahm - Friedrich - Mertesacker - Aogo
--------Khedira ----- Schweinst
-----Özil ------ Kroos ------- Jansen
---------------- Klose
442:
-----------------Neuer
Lahm - Friedrich - Mertesacker - Aogo
--------Khedira ----- Schweinst
--Özil----------------------------Kroos--
----------Gomez-----Cacau--------------
It might look odd that i chose different strikers for the two formations here. But Klose is the best striker for a 451 formation. His style is similar to that of Olic (or even Etoo if you like) ... very high work rate, good pace and trying to get into the box again to finish with either head or feet. His problem is just that he is really out of form. I dont see another striker of that sort for a 451 otherwise. Gomez is the best finisher, but he is just not mobile enough. Cacau is a deep lying forward, complementing excelently with Gomez (they played together for years in Stuttgart), so its an easy choice to field both when you run 2 strikers - they also showed that in the final 30 min vs HUngary.
Some other choices: I think Friedrich is set as 2nd CD now after Westermann is out. I kinda like Tasci a lot too, as he is simple the better footballer. But Friedrich is high on form, very solid and experienced, so its fine with me - i also prefer him over Boateng currently. The fullback options are hard: frist you have to decide where to field Lahm - left or right. He says je prefers right now after playing it for a year in Bayern, so i put him there and take the best left back option in Aogo. Jansen is generally an option there too, but not only do i want him in the left midfield, its the far better position for him as he is defensively rather weak. Although that can be a valid option when being behind in score. When oyu move Lahm left, its not unlikely to play Boateng right. Or Friedrich right and Boateng in the center ... you see how variable this team is ...
The holding midfielders are absolutely certain now that Ballack is gone. Actually this is the best combo imo, even with Ballack available, but whatever
Then i really like Özil, Kroos and Jansen as offensive midfielders, although it looks like Podolski will be occupying Jansens spot for now, but Jansen to be fair is still not 100% fit and in form ... lets hope that will change. Then you stil have Müller and Marin as options. You can field both from the start or use them as super subs, and esp. Marin is imo a very strong supersub there. Müller could be fielded behind the lone striker like in Munich too, when you want to take more care defensively (and use his extreme work rate), if oyu want to fight teams that play through the middle and like to overpower you. But honestly most even top-teams play with 6 man behind it seems. That also goes for Serbia and Argentina, our toughest group opponent and our potential 1/4-final opponent. Müller might really work vs Spain, but thats it probably.
So much from me now ...
or actually one last thing: what really amazes me is how variable our squad is. We can change the look of our squad like hardly any other team, and keep a very high level with it. Thats b/c the level of the players is soo tight - we might lack the absolute world class players (although we have a few that seem on their way), but we have 10-15 players on high international level, and the rest close after. Hardly anyone currently knows how the starting lineup will look, prolly not even Löw. And that makes it really hard for any opponent to figure out our gameplan.
So im really looking forward to the WC currently and i have a real good feeling about it. Imo we currently have the technically and tactically best squad we ever had for a tournament, and it should be really worth and enjoying to watch germany play now (esp. if Löw runs my pref 451 formation
). The thing we lack is experience and maybe mental strenght. Thats why i think we play a really good tournament, but will be tragically eliminated by Argentina in the quarters, after being more than an equal opponent. Bu then i also like to call us favorites for the WC 2014 already
