What I like about the plan: It doesn't include Neymar
What I don't like about the plan: It relies heavily on possible one-season-wonders to become consistent world-class, like Haaland or Isak. That's a hard call. I get the gist of it, to make the squad younger with a core that can grow together, which is fine. To me, ideally, it would mean older players like Alba/Busquets/Rakitic/Vidal/Suarez/Pique was phased out way earlier, so we keep them maximum next season and get some pace among the attacking options.
I might be a dreamer, but Puig and Alena on the bench with De Jong and Arthur starting wouldn't be bad next season, imo. Although Raktic/Vidal leaving might mean we should get some sort of replacement, especially if Busquets should play less.
Yeah, I know there are some one-season-wonders included but in today's world not many players stay at "smaller" clubs long enough to have 2-3 consistent seasons there so we would be more sure they can make it here before buying them. Other top clubs go after them after their breakout season instead of risk losing them or their price go up even more if they perform for another season at a high level. And once they are in RM, PSG, City,... they are almost impossible to get unless they flop there (but then we're usually not interested anymore; though maybe in some cases those players should get a second chance if we can get them for cheap).
Or they move from midtable clubs to developing/selling clubs like Dortmund/Ajax for 20-30m at most and if they are good there their price is again multiplified. If you're convinced a player is for real you have to take a gamble with him sometimes even if there is a risk he could be a one-season wonder. But even if he fails it's easier to recuperate money if he costs 30 or 50m instead of 100m+ and he's also on lower wages (I know transfer fees and wages are not always related but if you pay 100m+ for a player then it's almost guaranteed he'll also be given astronomical wages).
In other words I prefer to buy 3 or 4 players for 30-40m (50-60m nowadays) instead of spending 110m+ for one player. Our success ratio on the market is around 30-40% (I'm including players who are only squad players here not just starters) so we have better chances to get at least one solid contributor out of 4 players. People were critical to Robert Fernandez's summer of 2016 when he has bought Umtiti, Paco, Gomes, Digne and Denis (he was cheap because we had a buy-back). Umtiti was a great starter before injuries (which are mostly his fault because he has played through injury at the 2018 WC and then also didn't want a surgery when Barca doctors suggested) and we sold other players with not a big loss. Digne was also a very solid backup for two years but understandably wanted to leave to get more playing time at his age. Both Paco and Gomes also proved in other clubs they are good players but were just not a fit here (and in Paco's case also not given a fair chance because Messi's bestie Suarez has to play even when not totally fit). So that transfer window wasn't really all that bad all things considered. 2018 was ok as well with Arthur, Lenglet and Vidal all becoming solid contributors for not too overexaggerated fees in a new market though we've missed on some other opportunities as well to make our squad better.
Obviously the market has changed since 2017 and players that once costed 20-30m are now suddenly 50-60m players and those who were then worth 50m are now 100m+ (whether they are worth that much or not is another question). All clubs have adapted to this new reality and set new prices when selling (there are obviously also some exceptions - relatively low buy out clauses, expiring contracts - which we should use better). Even before Neymar has heated up the market we had to pay more than most clubs simply for a fact we're one of the financially most powerful clubs in the world and everyone know this. So we usually needed to pay 20-30% more than second level clubs which was somewhat sustainable when prices were still relatively "normal" but now when we already have to overpay most players for 200% it's worse.
What didn't change much is our (in)ability to sell players. Yes, we've improved a bit and have actually managed to sell some unwanted players instead of loaning them until their contracts expires but we still don't sell 20m players for 40m or so mostly because our players are on a lot higher wages compared to similar level players in other clubs (and this is even a bigger problem than overpaying in transfer fees). We usually sell for around players's market value and not for their inflated price like other clubs do when they sell to us. And until we learn to sell better (and as mentioned the first thing we should do is lower players's wages to make them more affordable to more clubs if/when we decide to sell) we'll have to be more careful on the buying part. So no more 100m+ signings for me in the forseeable future. Haaland is probably the only player right now who I'd go behind that barrier if needed (it won't be next summer because of his clause but as I've said before I don't believe it's likely we'll get him in 2021 because he and Raiola have other plans for now).
Back to "one-season-wonders" in my plan:
We'd get Haaland in 2021 (he won't leave Dortmund this summer) or even in 2023/24 (as explained in previous post) when he'll have more than just one season behind him. But I'm convinced right now he's a real deal and he'll score at every level/club he'll play for.
Isak is more questionable I agree but I'd still prefer to take a risk with him for around half of Lautaro's price. I also like his profile better than Lautaro.
Aouar is pretty proven in Lyon and ready for a bigger club imo. If we won't get him now he'll go to another top team and likely be lost forever.
I haven't seen much of Soumare but I like his profile, we could get another similar player instead of him but I think we need that type of midfielder.
Upamecano is a very good market opportunity with his contract expiring and a buy out clause of 60m (which seems a lot I know but as explained above it's just a new market reality). He also fits a profile of a CB I think we need. If we can get someone similar for less then I'm fine with this as well. I'm not set on those players I've mentioned exclusively. They are my favourites but if we can find alternatives it's good as well. But Upamecano and Aouar would be my priorities. It's unlikely we'll get either one of them though because we'll spend money and time on Lautaro and probably Neymar as well (hopefully just our time and not also money though).
Other players (Emerson, Trincao, Todibo) I've mentioned are already under club control and they deserve to get a fair chance especially if we'll do a rebuild. Give them two full seasons at least to see what they can do. One season is not enough as most players need that time just to adapt. We'll probably be an average team not competing for major titles for a few seasons when Messi declines/leaves anyway but if we could at least build for a better future at the same time I'd feel much better.
