Premier League 2018/19

Who will win the league?


  • Total voters
    106

Gnidrologist

Senior Member
Uhuh, more banning and censoring makes every place so much better. Moderators give free pass to write anything about any coach and player as long as it doesn't go into some kind of NSFW or flooding/spamming territory. It's called freedom of speech. If you dislike posts of some users you can easily use the ignore function to censor your personal safe space here.
 

serghei

Senior Member
Some clown really compared Pep with Valverde as far as managers are concerned. Any idea who did this?

Yep, our very own Tackle. :lol:
 

BBZ8800

Senior Member
I have said 100s of times that Pep's style at Barca has been (somewhat) figured out over time and the opponents have adjusted and learned how to defend better and how to kill his team more efficient.
In his 4th season here, Pep started to struggle.

Majority of people are repeating the same alibi answer all the time: players stopped executing it properly...

I have said a few weeks ago: this is Pep's 4th season at City.
1. not only that he will have to deal with motivation of his players who are less motivated than in his 1st or 2nd season
2. but also, EPL teams were shocked and not used to their style in his first years there.
Today, in his 4th season, in more and more matches, it is clear that the teams have learned how to defend against City and how to kill them on counters more efficient than a season or two ago.

I see that people will put the blame again on individual errors, injuries and similar.

Of course that those things play a part also.
But City always had individual mistakes and injuries.
It didn't kill them as much as it will this season.

Again, Crujff himself talked about it how Spanish teams "figured" them out after a few years and that he needed to reinvent some new ideas and tricks to keep on winning.
Pep's Barca started a downward spiral path after 3 years.
City will imo do the same.

This is not a post against Pep.
This is about cycles and how the opponents will always evolve, learn and close the gap over time.
No team in the world can sell the same trick for 8 years in a row.
You can sell the old trick ONLY if you add a lot of new tricks into a maths.

So, anyway, let's test it together and check:
1. how City's season will develop this season
2. and whether they will have more and more matches where they will both:
1) look somewhat toothless and neutralized in attack
2) and whether they will be exposed and killed more and more in defense (not only due to injuries in defense)
 

Ritchie

New member
City will still win most games but Pep's intensity grates after a while and he can't get that extra mile from players.

Kompany a big miss in the dressing room. He's been the cornerstone of all their success since the takeover.
 

Centauri B

New member
[MENTION=16942]BBZ8800[/MENTION]

There is a much simpler answer:

a) Some of his players (key ones) are ageing.

b) Man City are suffering from injuries to other key players.
 

BBZ8800

Senior Member
[MENTION=16942]BBZ8800[/MENTION]

There is a much simpler answer:

a) Some of his players (key ones) are ageing.

b) Man City are suffering from injuries to other key players.

So, basically, an option that: even Pep's system will be eventually neutralized in new countries where he comes=doesn't exist.

No offense, but replies like this one are forcing me to exaggerate in my posts.

Everything goes in cycles and everything gets neutralized (to some extent) over time. Except Pep's style :rolleyes:
The same happened with Pep's Barca (2011/12).
The same happened in the same time with a Spanish NT team (after 2012).
The same will the most likely again happen with Pep's City in his 4th year and later.

About ageing:
1. if it is that simple, why didn't Spanish NT team just start to play younger players. Their "unbeatable" system would have worked again like a charm with younger, motivated players, right?
2. the same, why isn't Pep playing younger players then. His system should be unbeatable till eternity with younger players, right?
3. about injuries, they missed De Bruyne last season and they broke all records.
Regarding injuries this season, we could say that their defense is weaker.
So, fine, they could concede more goals in defense.
But what about offense?
Injured defenders shouldn't have any influence on City's possession game and attacking actions.

I mean, I have watched a few City's matches this season, and if I were a coach, even after watching 5 matches, I would give a few tips to my team how to defend against some of City's basic actions:
1. when there is a foul or a corner, City plays somewhat "dirty" and they try to play it right away while the opponents are talking and while they are trying to create a wall (against free kicks).
City then score lots of goals this way against confused defense (similar to a 4th goal at Liverpool:Barca).
So, a rule no1: whenever there is a foul for City, be fast and be prepared that they will start an action RIGHT AWAY.
2. no2, they are currently attacking on wings with 6 wingers: LW and RW, then 2 CMs who drift wide, similar to wingers, plus a LB and a RB.
Their most used action lately is: play as fast as possible. Pass the ball to wings as fast as possible. One out of 6 wingers (with overlapping from other 1-2 guys) will dribble and run towards the box/or touchline.
Then, they will rarely shoot on goal.
The most likely option is:
1. either passing a low cross/pass into the box (parallel with a goal line) and then there is always a havoc in defense and easy tap ins after rebounds happens often.
2. the other option is a backpass to the edge of a box where 1-2-3 players are always waiting for a shot.

Now add 10s of other little things like: learning how to avoid their pressure.
Learn how to counter them the most efficiently etc.
All of these things are figured out and improved over time, with an experience of playing against them and copying ideas from other teams who have successfully neutralized them.
Remember how everyone started to play against Barca in the same way after 2012: with 2 blocks of buses (with a crowded middle around the box, leaving flanks somewhat empty and exposed), yet nobody played that way 5 years before that.
Teams and coaches are copying tricks from other teams who were successful against Barca/City. Plus they are adding their own new ideas.
Basically, against big teams like Barca or City, you have one big conspiracy where the whole world is united against them and the minor opponents are united together in evolving ways and tricks how to stop this evil force which is killing everyone with 5:0 results.

Now, imagine when City played for the first time against West Ham/Everton and similar teams.
West Ham didn't know how City will play and what has struck them.
In the first seasons, the opponents are quite shocked against these "revolutionary/different" tactics.
But after 3-4-5-10 matches against City, they will slowly start to understand patterns and be BETTER prepared against their attacks.
Especially when they will see tactics from other EPL teams which worked well against City.

I mean, just take that example with "fast free kicks/corners", when City is often creating chances against confused defense which wasn't in their defensive shape.
You can "sell" that trick once or twice, but after that the opponent's coach is an idiot if you will be able to sell him the same trick for 5 seasons in a row.
Ok, City has 10-20 tricks in their sleeves, but you get the point.
In a season 1: the opponents aren't prepared for ANY of those 10 tricks.
After 2-3 seasons: the opponents are prepared for a majority of their attacking patterns and tricks.
After 5 seasons: even worse. Majority of tricks are figured out and City will turn from a team of Gods into a team of mortals, the same happened with Crujff's Barca, Pep's Barca, or even Mourinho's Chelsea, who also had weird tricks in his first years there (when they kicked out Barca in 2005).
For example, Chelsea has kicked us in 2005 with their tricks and revolutionary play for that era (Lampard and Cms booting the ball upfield as fast and as strong as possible. Drobga or Gudjohnsen winning an aerial battle and passing the ball to two fast wingers Robben, Joe Cole or Kezman. Wingers running into a box 1 vs 1 vs keeper. Repeat the same action for 10-15 times per match and you will score 3-4 goals against any opponent).
Chelsea was winning with that weird style back then and no one didn't know what to do.
But luckily, Rijkaard wasn't THAT dumb and he didn't allow to be tricked in the same way for 2 seasons in a row.
Since Rijkaard figured out that:
1. Chelsea doesn't want possession and that Mou is "inviting" you to come around their box: and then, when you lose the ball, they will boot it upfield right away and they will kill you with that: boot upfield/win an aerial battle/pass to wingers game.
So, Rijkaard solved these problems this way:
1) he also gave up from possession, lol and gave the ball to Chelsea. And Chelsea sucked with the ball. They were good only without a ball.
So, if they had the ball, they couldn't play counters.
2) against long balls and aerial duels, he fielded: LB Oleguer (187cm height), CB Puyol 178, CB Marquez 184, double pivot Edmilson 187, Motta 186.
So, instead of playing with short midfielders (xavi, Iniesta, Deco, Gerard) like in 2005 who were eaten alive in that weird boot upfield/win an aerial battle football, he fielded a very tall team.
And that way neutralized Chelsea's aerial strength.

So, you see, this is also another simplified example of "figuring out" teams who have some weird/revolutionary tactics.
Mou's style worked with Porto in 2004' and with Chelsea in 2005 against Barca.
But then Liverpool figured them out in a CL semis of 2005.
And Barca kicked them out for good in 2006. After that, everyone started to play that way against Mou's Chelsea and his winning cycle was finished.

Now, go back to Pep's style.
Even if his team has 100 tricks in his sleeve, it's efficiency will drop over time.
In the first year, you will have 100 tricks.
After the first year, the opponents will figure out 20 tricks. You will have 80 tricks left.
After 2 years: you will have 60 tricks left.
After 3 years: you will have 40 tricks left etc.

Anyway, I am not saying that we shouldn't play Pep's style.
But my "problem" is that people still think that Pep's style from 2011 would still work like a charm in 2019, lol. If executed properly...
Any winning system without evolving and improvements can win over and over ONLY if your opponents, coaches, scouts, coaching staff, players are dumb as fuck and you can sell them the same tricks over and over.

People here are still trying to copy Pep's style from 2009-2011.
And Pep's opponents have figured him out, so Pep was forced to reinvent some new tricks for a current City's play.
So, we currently have Pep's system version 2.
This system will get weaker and weaker in upcoming years.
And if Pep will return to Barca or he will try to dominate EPL again (or with some other club), he will need to offer Pep's football version 3.

So, my point is: the opponents are forcing Pep to create Pep's football version 3.
Yet people here are looking for carbon copies of Xavi-Busi-Iniesta and are posting pics and videos of our wins and movement from 2009 or 2011 :lol:
** Remember when I posted some videos of young Xavi from 2002, and people replied: well, the opponents were leaving tons of space back then. It was easier to play back then.
True.
Teams will never leave as much space as in 2002.
Because they have evolved and improved their defensive game.
So, looking at videos from 2002 is of no use since the opponents will never play as naive as back then.
But then, the same logic applies for 2009 or 2011.
What is the point of analyzing how we have outplayed an opponent in 2011, when no one EVER will defend THAT WAY in 2020.
Tricks "sold" back then can't be used anymore.
Or, if you used one trick successfully for 10 times in 2011, you will be able to execute the same trick let's say only 2-3 times in 2021'.

** Or another example: Crujff's Barca from 1991-1994 played a revolutionary football.
It was awesome back then.
Now, a question: do you think, if we would play a CARBON COPY of that system from 1994 (without ANY of new ideas from 2000s or 2010s, that we would be winning CLs today?
 
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Ritchie

New member
I agree, even if they dicked us last season (all our own making) and most of their fans are airheads, we have to admit that they have tremendous players (at least 6 or 7) an intelligent and gentlemanly manager, and a great history. I have no beef against Liverpool. On the other hand, I can understand why United fans are suffering right now.

Liverpool suffered for 20 years while United won everything and they rotted.

Liverpool still haven't won a league title in 30 years.
 

George_Costanza

Active member
I prefer posting on sites where my views are constantly challenged and scrutinized. What is the point of spending time circle jerking other blokes with the same ideas?

So you are saying you argue just for the sake of arguing and being different!

You sound like a rebellious teen with strict parents, who let his emotions take control and his body goes into a fight mode, so your usual rational/logical thinking is thrown out the window.
 

khaled_a_d

Senior Member
Pep is overstaying in City IMHO. He himself said he should have walked away from Barca after 3rd year rather than 4th one.
Him trying to stay for 4 or 5 year in City is a mistake. His style of play is very demanding and tough to keep team motivated for that long
 

Centauri B

New member
Liverpool suffered for 20 years while United won everything and they rotted.

Liverpool still haven't won a league title in 30 years.

Liverpool fans suffered a lot for 30 years, I totally agree. Still, they managed to win as many CLs in these last 3 decades as United have. Their CL last season is a bigger deal than any league title and we should acknowledge that.

Moreover, I think that their league drought is about to end. Liverpool fans are a happy bunch right now (I so wish we can dent their enthusiasm come the CL KO rounds in 2020)
 

Sailor Mars

Well-known member
Pep is overstaying in City IMHO. He himself said he should have walked away from Barca after 3rd year rather than 4th one.
Him trying to stay for 4 or 5 year in City is a mistake. His style of play is very demanding and tough to keep team motivated for that long

Maybe Pep feels pressure to get some CL success with Man City. He hasn't gotten past the QF in his tenure so far.
 

Jenks

Senior Member
The reason for City's current form is not that complicated. Their defence has regressed to how it was in Guardiola's first season through an injury pile-up - and that spreads through the entire team in how they play.
 

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