Over the next 1-3 years we need to change our whole frontline (assuming Messi will leave in this timeframe), whole starting midfield bar De Jong, whole defence and keep ter Stegen if we want to have a chance to win the CL again.
Agreed.
This would be my 4-year plan.
2020/21
Sell: Coutinho, Dembele, Raki, Vidal, Umtiti
Buy: Upamecano, Aouar, a B2B midfielder like Soumare, Isak
Back from loans: Todibo (don't believe S04 will buy him), Alena (he could be kept as a 6th midfielder or probably sold)
Possibly loan: Trincao, Puig, some Barça B players
Possible starting XI (4-3-1-2): MATS, Semedo, Pique,
Upamecano, Alba, FDJ,
Soumare/Arthur*,
Aouar; Messi; Griezmann, Suarez
* depending on opponent
New starters in bold.
Now I know having Suarez as a starter for another season is not what people want to see but I just don't see him leaving and he won't be benched as long as he's here. Isak should still push for minutes and get enough playing time to see what we have in him but I think with improved defense and midfield we could give another try to win a CL with Suarez and Messi before doing a further rebuild.
I would keep Griezmann for another season if nothing else for his workrate which we'd need with Messi and Suarez still mostly walking upfront.
If we won't have enough money for Isak after addresing defense and midfield we can also look for a cheaper forward option like Jonathan David. I think we'll eventually need to take a risk on some cheaper players outside of the top 5 leagues because we can't continue to spend 100m+ on players who then fail. Todibo should also be given enough minutes to see what we have in him before deciding about spending money on another CB.
2021/22:
Leaving: Suarez (MLS), Pique (I think he could retire)
Potentially sell: Griezmann - depending on how he'll do next season and what other striker we'll get, Roberto/Semedo, possibly other squad players if we can replace them with Pedri and upcoming La Masia players like Ilaix
Back from buy-back/loans: Emerson, Pedri (he'll most likely be loaned to UDLP or other club next season), Trincao (if loaned)
Buy:
- Haaland: I believe Raiola will prefer selling him to a club like United and include a buy out clause between 150-200m in a few years so don't think we'll have a chance to get him next summer (especially with elections probably delaying some of our transfer activities) but regardless of what we'll do at the forward position this year we should at least try our best to get him.
-CB: there are many talented CBs available, get whoever fits us the best
- LB: longterm replacement for Alba if Firpo won't suddenly turn things around; Not really exactly a lot of young LBs on my radar but hopefully we'll find someone. I don't follow Arsenal much but I've heard very good things about Bukayo Saka whose contract is expiring in 2021 (he'll most likely renew before we'll show any interest though).
Possible starting XI (4-3-1-2): MATS;
Emerson,
new CB/Todibo, Upamecano, Alba; FDJ, Soumare, Aouar; Messi, Griezmann/Fati,
Isak/Haaland
2022/23:
I believe Messi will want to have another try at the World Cup and since WC 2022 is played in November-December that year I think he'll stay until 2023 and then probably go back to Argentina. And while he will probably decline by that time I still think he'll be unquestionable starter.
Potentially leaving: Busquets, hopefully Alba (he'll be mostly done by that time though I have a hard time him accepting to go with two years still left on a contract)
Buy: LW/RW - depending on Fati/Trincao's development we should look for other cheaper options before that but I wouldn't invest big money in a winger as long as we have Messi as I think we won't play a true 4-3-3 until he's here.
Possible starting XI (4-3-1-2): MATS; Emerson, new CB/Todibo, Upamecano,
new LB; FDJ, Soumare, Aouar; Messi,
Fati/Trincao, Isak/Haaland
2023/24:
Leaving: Messi, Busi (contract ends, if he won't leave before), Alba (maybe with all his amigos leaving he'll go as well), other players who won't show enough in their first 2 years
Possible signing(s): Haaland. If we won't get him in 2021 I think here will be our other chance. If he'll continue like he has started his career I wouldn't have any problem paying 150-200m for him, he'll still only be 23 in 2023. He would have a chance to be our next superstar after Messi and we could build the team around his strengths.
Other signings depending on what we'll need then, it's hard to say so much in advance. Possible signings in midfield if Aouar/Soumare or even FDJ wouldn't work out longterm though we could potentially replace them witih the likes of Pedri/Ilaix for cheap. The same for defense (hopefully we'll continue to bring cheap CBs and one of them will turn out gold for us like Varane did for RM).
Possible starting XI (4-3-3): MATS; Emerson, new CB/Todibo, Upamecano, new LB; FDJ, Soumare, Aouar; new LW/Fati, Haaland, Trincao/new RW
I think at that point (with Messi gone) we could go back to a true 4-3-3 with two wingers or 4-2-3-1 with Aouar/Pedri as an AMC.
Of course a lot of things would need to go right in this scenario and we'd have to be right on about 70-80% of our signings which is almost impossible but this is how I'd try to do a rebuild. I wouldn't spend 100m+ on Lautaro or even less Neymar this summer but I expect us to do exactly that.
