Who will win the 2018 Ballon d'Or?

Varane winning the award would prove that nothing but the trophies matter. It would make the award look silly. Even more than now.

Wolfe said:

Out of curiosity, what would constitute an "amazing" season for a defender? Going half a season without conceding (or something comparably impossible)?

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this goes back to the whole individual vs team thing though.. defenders defend as a unit so 'half a season without conceding' isn't down to one player, you have RB, LB, other CB AND the GK. attacking players will always have the advantage as they can create moments of magic that takes all the headlines

i wouldn't have much problem with Varane winning it though if it was to be a defender, i just dont see any clear winners this year

Givenchy said:

this goes back to the whole individual vs team thing though.. defenders defend as a unit so 'half a season without conceding' isn't down to one player, you have RB, LB, other CB AND the GK. attacking players will always have the advantage as they can create moments of magic that takes all the headlines

i wouldn't have much problem with Varane winning it though if it was to be a defender, i just dont see any clear winners this year

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Well yeah, duh, which however does go back to the question "what does any defender have to do to be considered here" doesn't it?

It's almost as if people forgot what Varane does is what most elite defenders in history did or still do. It's what Chiellini does, it's what recently Van Dijk has been doing. He's an elite CB. For me not quite Nesta level yet, but it's understandable, it's not even his prime yet. Goals conceded by France or Madrid are very very rarely down to his individual mistake or his bad judgement causing the entire block to fall like dominos. If you were to equate a fatal mistake on the other end to let's say missing sitters then most forwards wouldn't have the chance against him.

And to think some people are questioning his belonging on the ballot this season too...

Wolfe said:

Well yeah, duh, which however does go back to the question "what does any defender have to do to be considered here" doesn't it?

It's almost as if people forgot what Varane does is what most elite defenders in history did or still do. It's what Chiellini does, it's what recently Van Dijk has been doing. He's an elite CB. For me not quite Nesta level yet, but it's understandable, it's not even his prime yet. Goals conceded by France or Madrid are very very rarely down to his individual mistake or his bad judgement causing the entire block to fall like dominos. If you were to equate a fatal mistake on the other end to let's say missing sitters then most forwards wouldn't have the chance against him.

And to think some people are questioning his belonging on the ballot this season too...

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he needs to be Nesta level if he wants to win a Ballon d'or in the Messi/Ronaldo era as a defender

you have a point about mistakes not being attributed to him but i'd wager most voters and fans would rather watch attacking play than defensive and it stays in the mind longer.. i mean, Ronaldo's goal vs Juve is still being talked about and a goal saving tackle is arguably just as important yet they don't get the hype or mentions. to be clear, i never said anything about him not belonging on the ballot but theres no standout for me this year so he could very well win it. if it goes to a French player it probably should be his

Givenchy said:

I really dont see anyone that deserving of it this year..

Modric hype train was ridiculous, Ronaldo has faded away and didn't perform the full season, Messi is obviously the best but didn't win a CL.. Griezmann has been poor, Varane won CL and WC but nothing THAT amazing and then you have Mbappe.. laughable if hes anywhere near the top 3 and shows how bias this award is from the French

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Interesting, tell me more about that bias regarding an award in which journalists from all around the world vote, and that no French has won since Zidane (who only got it once) ?

MODRIC will win it 100%- look at the ODDS. Even if he didnt deserve it this year, you can give him the Ballon Dor because he was the Xavi for Madrid last years and so he deserves atleast one Ballon Dor in his career. ImO Ronaldo or Messi deserves it this year but they wont win it as scoring 50 goals in a season became 'boring' for the most people.

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I mean, that's even sillier than Varane.

Europa League > Champions League for BDO confirmed.

We already fucked up this year, since we can't finish 3rd in the CL group anymore. Messi's 2019 BDO chances are close to 0 now.

Deserves it more than Modric.

i think any one of Modric, Griezmann or Varane can take it, voting must be hella tight this year

it just goes to show though its all about bs hype. amazing how Germany won the world cup back in 2014 yet a German player doesn't win the award.. France win the world cup and oh look 2, possibly even 3 in the top 3 whilst the generations 2 best players miss out?

hopefully with Griezmann we get a SIIIIIIII moment where he does the L dance when he collects the award

If the WC is everything then the award should go to N'Golo Kante or Hugo Lloris similarly to how Fabio Cannavaro won it in 2006.

It's already a sham so why not make it even more. This award basically states it's for the entire year yet neither CR or Messi are in the Top 3

Givenchy said:

i think any one of Modric, Griezmann or Varane can take it, voting must be hella tight this year

it just goes to show though its all about bs hype. amazing how Germany won the world cup back in 2014 yet a German player doesn't win the award.. France win the world cup and oh look 2, possibly even 3 in the top 3 whilst the generations 2 best players miss out?

hopefully with Griezmann we get a SIIIIIIII moment where he does the L dance when he collects the award

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From 2010 to 2015, the Ballon d'Or was called "FIFA Ballon d'Or", because it merged with FIFA player of the year award. Captains and coaches from every NT voted, and as always with the FIFA POTY, it all came down to pure hype, with many silly votes from several captains/coaches (go google it if you don't believe me, you can even find the detailed results of the 2014 BO you mentioned).
Before that, voters were journalists from selected sports magazines all around the world. They reverted to this system 2 years ago. I'm not saying this is perfect, but you get way less weird votes than with FIFA POTY. And thus, before 2010, every BO winner was also a WC winner (there are exceptions to that rule before 1994, because at some point the BO was only awarded to european players, and then to players only playing in europe, before finally being open to literally every player in the world).
Your argument regarding the 2014 BO is therefore invalid: had France Football sticked to its orginal voting system, a german player would have won the 2014 BO without a doubt (or maybe Messi would have snatched it, actually). And a German player would be favorite this year if Germany had won the WC last summer. But they didn't.

I do prefer this format.

I think every voter should have been required to watch at least 10 full matches of every top 5 nominee, perhaps sent by the nominee himself, or their clubs and NTs.

Sports Journalism these days is hot garbage and I doubt 80% of the voting panel watch most of these guys play in anything except for the CL latter KO stages and the stats sheet.

Wait, which format do you prefer ? (that's a serious question, not sure I understood your post correctly).

Because sports journalism is far from perfect, but iirc the voters for the BO are from the most "serious" papers/websites in every country usually. France Football for example is not the most interesting paper in the world, but it's not a tabloid at all, and it's rather serious. On the other hand, I don't really think that NT captains necessarily watch more football than sports journalists. The most obvious flaw in that system (FIFA POTY) was that you could clearly see how biased some votes were. Ronaldo and Messi never voted for one another (shocking, I know right ?). Spain captain would vote for Ronaldo if he was a RM player, and for Messi if he was a Barca player, but never for both at the same time (Casillas voted Ronaldo, Ramos and Müller in 2014). Almost every NT captain voted for at least one of his teammate when given the opportunity (in 2014, Van Persie voted for Robben, Kompany voted for both Courtois and Hazard, Low and Schweinsteiger ONLY voted for german players...). Not gonna go through all the votes, go check them if you want to, but on many captains/coaches you can clearly see how they just played favorites (Portugal coach didn't vote for Messi, Ronaldo and Deschamps voted for Benzema, Martino only voted for argentinian players...). Of course it can also happen with journalists, but believe me, it's way less common.