Ernesto Valverde - V1

kilian · Jan 31, 2018

We are very much capable of playing 442 with Coutinho as LM and Dembele as RM. They are nowhere near as bad in defending as some users here think.
But it has to be with Busquets-Rakitic combo as pivots, not Paulinho who is a tactical horror show. Against Alaves he was all over the pitch, leaving Rakitic exposed a number of times. Also, Pique and Umtiti need to get their shit together and realise they are defenders, not attacking midfielders.

Furthermore, Alaves game strenghtened my opinion of why Valverde doesn`t prefer Semedo as a starter RB. I don`t know is it lack of intelligence for positional play or still getting used to the new team, but I can`t remember one time that he joined the midfield when his flank was occupied. He usually just hugs the touchline and waits for something to happen. Alves for example was a doctor in doing things like that. Roberto and Alba also have that ability to know when to move inside from the flank and draw defenders away.

LeeRomeno · Jan 31, 2018

As a statistics freak, i was doing some digging to see if i can find some data to support our this season success. First of all i looked at our shots, shots on target and goals in last 5 seasons at the same time (so after 21 games)
2017/8: 329 shots, 159 on target (48,3% from total), 59 goals (37,1% from shots on target)
2016/7: 344 shots, 129 on target (37,5%), 55 goals (42,6%)
2015/6: 339 shots, 141 on target (41,6%), 54 goals (38,3%)
2014/5: 347 shots, 142 on target (40,9%), 57 goals (40,1%)
2013/4: 337 shots, 149 on target (44,2%), 57 goals (38,2%)
What this tells me is that we have taken least shots in last 5 seasons, but we have had by far best shots per target ratio, which in the end has (although having quite bad scoring ratio) produced more goals. We seem to be really careful in when we take shots, shots are also from shorter distance and of course our strikers have been more accurate. So we are more patient in possession and do not shoot on sight as we used to with Lucho. If only our conversion rate would be better as well.

Then i looked at our defense stats, so shots against:
2017/8: 222 shots, 71 on target (32%), 10 goals (14%)
2016/7: 195 shots, 76 on target (39%), 18 goals (24%)
2015/6: 214 shots, 82 on target (38%), 17 goals (21%)
2014/5: 152 shots, 47 on target (31%), 11 goals (23%)
2013/4: 181 shots, 70 on target (38%), 13 goals (18%)

So what really surprised me was the amount of shots we have received. This clearly shows that we are actually inviting teams to shoot way more than we have in previous seasons. The shots on target % shows us, that apart from Luchos first season (and first half of it, before crisis at Anoeta and treble form), we have considerably reduced the % of shots on target. This tells me that those shots have been from far and more difficult positions. Last but not least, Ter Stegen has been wonderful in goal with only 14% of on target shots getting in, playing also very important role in our solid results.

If i look at other teams in La Liga this season, this may also be interesting:
Real Madrid is leading in shots taken (we all know who is to blame lol) with 384 shots , 144 on target (37,5%) and 43 goals (30%).
Real Madrid is actually second least shots against team in La Liga this season with 188 shots against, 73 on target (39%) and 19 goals conceded (26%).
So contrary to us, other teams rarely get to shoot against Real, but if they do, its from relatively good position and Navas has been pretty bad in saves as well. So to conclude from each shot on target, we score 37%, but concede only 14%, with Real, same numbers are 30% and 26%.

Best defensive team in La Liga is Eibar btw with only 172 shots against them, but their goalkeeper is really letting them down with 42% of all shots on target going in as well.

Zincubus · Jan 31, 2018

kilian said:
We are very much capable of playing 442 with Coutinho as LM and Dembele as RM. They are nowhere near as bad in defending as some users here think.
But it has to be with Busquets-Rakitic combo as pivots, not Paulinho who is a tactical horror show. Against Alaves he was all over the pitch, leaving Rakitic exposed a number of times. Also, Pique and Umtiti need to get their shit together and realise they are defenders, not attacking midfielders.

Furthermore, Alaves game strenghtened my opinion of why Valverde doesn`t prefer Semedo as a starter RB. I don`t know is it lack of intelligence for positional play or still getting used to the new team, but I can`t remember one time that he joined the midfield when his flank was occupied. He usually just hugs the touchline and waits for something to happen. Alves for example was a doctor in doing things like that. Roberto and Alba also have that ability to know when to move inside from the flank and draw defenders away.

The manager set Coutinho AND Samedo up for a fail .

Samedo is still learning our ways and hasn't been given games so he pairs him up with Coutinho making his debut whilst playing him out of his normal position.

Still waiting for an explanation from our esteemed manager

Trickykid · Jan 31, 2018

Zincubus said:
The manager set Coutinho AND Samedo up for a fail .

Samedo is still learning our ways and hasn't been given games so he pairs him up with Coutinho making his debut whilst playing him out of his normal position.

Still waiting for an explanation from our esteemed manager

Wait all you like. Somehow I doubt he'll address the case, just because a keyboard warrior feels slighted.

He experimented, and it could've cost us, but in the end didn't. I bet both player and coach is the more wiser for it, and have moved on. Perhaps you should try the same?

Barcaman · Jan 31, 2018

LeeRomeno said:
As a statistics freak, i was doing some digging to see if i can find some data to support our this season success. First of all i looked at our shots, shots on target and goals in last 5 seasons at the same time (so after 21 games)
2017/8: 329 shots, 159 on target (48,3% from total), 59 goals (37,1% from shots on target)
2016/7: 344 shots, 129 on target (37,5%), 55 goals (42,6%)
2015/6: 339 shots, 141 on target (41,6%), 54 goals (38,3%)
2014/5: 347 shots, 142 on target (40,9%), 57 goals (40,1%)
2013/4: 337 shots, 149 on target (44,2%), 57 goals (38,2%)
What this tells me is that we have taken least shots in last 5 seasons, but we have had by far best shots per target ratio, which in the end has (although having quite bad scoring ratio) produced more goals. We seem to be really careful in when we take shots, shots are also from shorter distance and of course our strikers have been more accurate. So we are more patient in possession and do not shoot on sight as we used to with Lucho. If only our conversion rate would be better as well.

Then i looked at our defense stats, so shots against:
2017/8: 222 shots, 71 on target (32%), 10 goals (14%)
2016/7: 195 shots, 76 on target (39%), 18 goals (24%)
2015/6: 214 shots, 82 on target (38%), 17 goals (21%)
2014/5: 152 shots, 47 on target (31%), 11 goals (23%)
2013/4: 181 shots, 70 on target (38%), 13 goals (18%)

So what really surprised me was the amount of shots we have received. This clearly shows that we are actually inviting teams to shoot way more than we have in previous seasons. The shots on target % shows us, that apart from Luchos first season (and first half of it, before crisis at Anoeta and treble form), we have considerably reduced the % of shots on target. This tells me that those shots have been from far and more difficult positions. Last but not least, Ter Stegen has been wonderful in goal with only 14% of on target shots getting in, playing also very important role in our solid results.

If i look at other teams in La Liga this season, this may also be interesting:
Real Madrid is leading in shots taken (we all know who is to blame lol) with 384 shots , 144 on target (37,5%) and 43 goals (30%).
Real Madrid is actually second least shots against team in La Liga this season with 188 shots against, 73 on target (39%) and 19 goals conceded (26%).
So contrary to us, other teams rarely get to shoot against Real, but if they do, its from relatively good position and Navas has been pretty bad in saves as well. So to conclude from each shot on target, we score 37%, but concede only 14%, with Real, same numbers are 30% and 26%.

Best defensive team in La Liga is Eibar btw with only 172 shots against them, but their goalkeeper is really letting them down with 42% of all shots on target going in as well.

Great analysis.

I am surprised at number of shots we let but then again Ter Stegen has been saving us a lot this season.

Zincubus · Jan 31, 2018

Trickykid said:
Wait all you like. Somehow I doubt he'll address the case, just because a keyboard warrior feels slighted.

He experimented, and it could've cost us, but in the end didn't. I bet both player and coach is the more wiser for it, and have moved on. Perhaps you should try the same?

Just think we should be discussing it .. he's likely to do an equally stupid thing in the future if he keeps getting away with it

Zincubus · Jan 31, 2018

Barcaman said:
Great analysis.

I am surprised at number of shots we let but then again Ter Stegen has been saving us a lot this season.

Their goal was a complete fluke considering his standing foot slipped and he then kicked the ball onto his own left foot which spun the ball deflecting it past the bemused and helpless keeper

Horatio · Jan 31, 2018

Zincubus said:
Their goal was a complete fluke considering his standing foot slipped and he then kicked the ball onto his own left foot which spun the ball deflecting it past the bemused and helpless keeper

To fool thy enemy one has to fool thyself first.

MessiCam · Jan 31, 2018

kilian said:
We are very much capable of playing 442 with Coutinho as LM and Dembele as RM. They are nowhere near as bad in defending as some users here think.
But it has to be with Busquets-Rakitic combo as pivots, not Paulinho who is a tactical horror show. Against Alaves he was all over the pitch, leaving Rakitic exposed a number of times. Also, Pique and Umtiti need to get their shit together and realise they are defenders, not attacking midfielders.

Furthermore, Alaves game strenghtened my opinion of why Valverde doesn`t prefer Semedo as a starter RB. I don`t know is it lack of intelligence for positional play or still getting used to the new team, but I can`t remember one time that he joined the midfield when his flank was occupied. He usually just hugs the touchline and waits for something to happen. Alves for example was a doctor in doing things like that. Roberto and Alba also have that ability to know when to move inside from the flank and draw defenders away.

Some of us aren’t worried about the defensive contribution of Dembele and Coutinho. With only 2 central midfielders the oppositions transition catches us out because their forwards are now playing in 1 vs 1 situations or 3 vs 2.

It happened on numerous occasions against Alaves.

It’s also difficult to create numerical superiority in midfield with 2 pivots and 2 ultra attacking players on the flanks.

Joan · Jan 31, 2018

Zincubus said:
Just think we should be discussing it .. he's likely to do an equally stupid thing in the future if he keeps getting away with it

His experiment failed and you call it stupid?
It failed but it could've turned out good - that's a risk.
None can predict it all and thus, a coach has to try new things out in low risk games.

Who hoped 160m player would show nothing on the right?

BarcaOG · Jan 31, 2018

LeeRomeno said:
As a statistics freak, i was doing some digging to see if i can find some data to support our this season success. First of all i looked at our shots, shots on target and goals in last 5 seasons at the same time (so after 21 games)
2017/8: 329 shots, 159 on target (48,3% from total), 59 goals (37,1% from shots on target)
2016/7: 344 shots, 129 on target (37,5%), 55 goals (42,6%)
2015/6: 339 shots, 141 on target (41,6%), 54 goals (38,3%)
2014/5: 347 shots, 142 on target (40,9%), 57 goals (40,1%)
2013/4: 337 shots, 149 on target (44,2%), 57 goals (38,2%)
What this tells me is that we have taken least shots in last 5 seasons, but we have had by far best shots per target ratio, which in the end has (although having quite bad scoring ratio) produced more goals. We seem to be really careful in when we take shots, shots are also from shorter distance and of course our strikers have been more accurate. So we are more patient in possession and do not shoot on sight as we used to with Lucho. If only our conversion rate would be better as well.

Then i looked at our defense stats, so shots against:
2017/8: 222 shots, 71 on target (32%), 10 goals (14%)
2016/7: 195 shots, 76 on target (39%), 18 goals (24%)
2015/6: 214 shots, 82 on target (38%), 17 goals (21%)
2014/5: 152 shots, 47 on target (31%), 11 goals (23%)
2013/4: 181 shots, 70 on target (38%), 13 goals (18%)

So what really surprised me was the amount of shots we have received. This clearly shows that we are actually inviting teams to shoot way more than we have in previous seasons. The shots on target % shows us, that apart from Luchos first season (and first half of it, before crisis at Anoeta and treble form), we have considerably reduced the % of shots on target. This tells me that those shots have been from far and more difficult positions. Last but not least, Ter Stegen has been wonderful in goal with only 14% of on target shots getting in, playing also very important role in our solid results.

If i look at other teams in La Liga this season, this may also be interesting:
Real Madrid is leading in shots taken (we all know who is to blame lol) with 384 shots , 144 on target (37,5%) and 43 goals (30%).
Real Madrid is actually second least shots against team in La Liga this season with 188 shots against, 73 on target (39%) and 19 goals conceded (26%).
So contrary to us, other teams rarely get to shoot against Real, but if they do, its from relatively good position and Navas has been pretty bad in saves as well. So to conclude from each shot on target, we score 37%, but concede only 14%, with Real, same numbers are 30% and 26%.

Best defensive team in La Liga is Eibar btw with only 172 shots against them, but their goalkeeper is really letting them down with 42% of all shots on target going in as well.

Thank you for this!

MessiCam · Jan 31, 2018

LeeRomeno said:
As a statistics freak, i was doing some digging to see if i can find some data to support our this season success. First of all i looked at our shots, shots on target and goals in last 5 seasons at the same time (so after 21 games)
2017/8: 329 shots, 159 on target (48,3% from total), 59 goals (37,1% from shots on target)
2016/7: 344 shots, 129 on target (37,5%), 55 goals (42,6%)
2015/6: 339 shots, 141 on target (41,6%), 54 goals (38,3%)
2014/5: 347 shots, 142 on target (40,9%), 57 goals (40,1%)
2013/4: 337 shots, 149 on target (44,2%), 57 goals (38,2%)
What this tells me is that we have taken least shots in last 5 seasons, but we have had by far best shots per target ratio, which in the end has (although having quite bad scoring ratio) produced more goals. We seem to be really careful in when we take shots, shots are also from shorter distance and of course our strikers have been more accurate. So we are more patient in possession and do not shoot on sight as we used to with Lucho. If only our conversion rate would be better as well.

Then i looked at our defense stats, so shots against:
2017/8: 222 shots, 71 on target (32%), 10 goals (14%)
2016/7: 195 shots, 76 on target (39%), 18 goals (24%)
2015/6: 214 shots, 82 on target (38%), 17 goals (21%)
2014/5: 152 shots, 47 on target (31%), 11 goals (23%)
2013/4: 181 shots, 70 on target (38%), 13 goals (18%)

So what really surprised me was the amount of shots we have received. This clearly shows that we are actually inviting teams to shoot way more than we have in previous seasons. The shots on target % shows us, that apart from Luchos first season (and first half of it, before crisis at Anoeta and treble form), we have considerably reduced the % of shots on target. This tells me that those shots have been from far and more difficult positions. Last but not least, Ter Stegen has been wonderful in goal with only 14% of on target shots getting in, playing also very important role in our solid results.

If i look at other teams in La Liga this season, this may also be interesting:
Real Madrid is leading in shots taken (we all know who is to blame lol) with 384 shots , 144 on target (37,5%) and 43 goals (30%).
Real Madrid is actually second least shots against team in La Liga this season with 188 shots against, 73 on target (39%) and 19 goals conceded (26%).
So contrary to us, other teams rarely get to shoot against Real, but if they do, its from relatively good position and Navas has been pretty bad in saves as well. So to conclude from each shot on target, we score 37%, but concede only 14%, with Real, same numbers are 30% and 26%.

Best defensive team in La Liga is Eibar btw with only 172 shots against them, but their goalkeeper is really letting them down with 42% of all shots on target going in as well.

Thanks for this. There are those of us whom have pointed out the shots against without the stats. It was a concern then and is still a concern now, although to a lesser degree. That we’ve conceded less is down to MAtS in god mode.

I still maintain this “better defensively” is nothing but myth.

kilian · Jan 31, 2018

MessiCam said:
Some of us aren’t worried about the defensive contribution of Dembele and Coutinho. With only 2 central midfielders the oppositions transition catches us out because their forwards are now playing in 1 vs 1 situations or 3 vs 2.

It happened on numerous occasions against Alaves.

It’s also difficult to create numerical superiority in midfield with 2 pivots and 2 ultra attacking players on the flanks.

That`s the reason why you need to have a fullback that reads the game very well and positions himself accordingly. For example, if Dembele is in "ultra-attacking" mode as you call it, Semedo needs to be behind him, in line with our pivots to give a numerical superiority at that part of the field and also to protect against counterattacks. At the moment, he just hugs the touchline and waits for the ball.

MessiCam · Jan 31, 2018

kilian said:
That`s the reason why you need to have a fullback that reads the game very well and positions himself accordingly. For example, if Dembele is in "ultra-attacking" mode as you call it, Semedo needs to be behind him, in line with our pivots to give a numerical superiority at that part of the field and also to protect against counterattacks. At the moment, he just hugs the touchline and waits for the ball.

All good and well but the 1 vs 1’s happen in the centre of the park during these transitions.

I’ve watched Barça for many years and this is how they operate traditionally.

Barça 4-3-3 vs Opponent 4-4-2

Because there are only 2 forwards one of the full backs would join the midfield (They maintain numerical superiority in defence 3 vs 2) and a forward would drop into midfield (recently this has been Messi but Ronaldinho did it and Laudrup also did it). So now you have a situation of 5 vs 4 in midfield.

Barça 4-3-3 vs Opponent 4-3-3

The full back in this instance would remain in place as to maintain numerical superiority in defence (4 vs 3) but in midfield a forward would drop back to make it 4 vs 3 to attain numerical advantage there as well. If a CB followed the forward it would create space for a pass in behind.

This has always been how Barça operated on occasion they’d play 3-4-3 diamond as well. It always been about gaining numerical superiority in areas of the pitch.

How do you do that with 2 pivots without giving up your width?

Zincubus · Jan 31, 2018

Joan Laporta said:
His experiment failed and you call it stupid?
It failed but it could've turned out good - that's a risk.
None can predict it all and thus, a coach has to try new things out in low risk games.

Who hoped 160m player would show nothing on the right?

He's made a few dodgy calls over the season ..
To suggest that Coutinho 'showed nothing' in the match says more about you than him tbh

Ernesto Valverde - V1

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