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Thread: Ernesto Valverde

  1. #1651
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    Your quoted "expected goals" statistic is useless as it doesn't count opportunities which don't lead to shots.

    Cross which would put the striker 1-on-1 with the goalkeeper but the striker is half a step to late to get to the ball? No expected goal.
    Player fucking up the pass wich would easily put the striker 1-on-1 with the goalkeeper? No expected goal.
    Striker shooting from within the box from an amazing position where he is "expected" to score 9 out of 10 times position-wise but a great defender makes a last-ditch tackle to block and completely deflect the shot. Why should that be an "expected goal"?


    There are countless situations where teams can get past and open up this Barca defense easily which only the eye-test can confirm and that's why most are disappointed.

    And even if by statistics we "deserve" to be where we are point-wise, it still doesn't imply that we are actually doing well. An "expected" scoreline of 1.8 vs. 1.4 vs. a team like Leganes isn't great at all.

  2. #1652
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    Quote Originally Posted by Birdy View Post
    Having known EV's past, i can confirm that he is capable of building a team that can play beautiful football and win at the same time.
    Why he hasn't done that so far? I don't know.
    Maybe it's too early to judge conclusively, (and i will pass my first judgement after the Classico in December and my second and final judgment at the end of the season), but from the little we have seen, it seems that the re-introduction of Suarez destroyed the promising start with Messi being false 9 and two natural wingers moving diagonally. And this when discussing about beauty, because the results in terms of XGoals improved since then.
    People saying we have been lucky so far, and it's because of TerStegen that we are where we are: not true at all! As i said before, with modern statistics we can measure when we play effectively (not beautifully) and when we deserve the win. Letting the opposition shoot from positions that are not dangerous is not a sign of weakness, as it has been said here; it is a sign of weakness on the contrary only if these shots come from positions with significant chances of scoring.
    And what the statistics say is that so far in LaLiga only vs Getafe we didn't deserve the win, whereas we deserved the win vs Atletico that we didn't get. In all other games the scoreline reflected pretty much accurately the chances created.

    Having said that i cannot pretend to say i like seeing Rakitic play, or Suarez in that bad form, or the 33yr old Iniesta starting every game, or Gomez or Vidal a couple of times. And i miss the football we played under Pep, as most people in this forum i guess. Under Enrique we played more beautifully than now, but solely relying on the individual brilliance of MSN (with Suarez in diabolic form during 14-16) and the rest of the team kind of disjointed from them.. Had EV had that MSN of 14-16 right now, or Rakitic-iniesta 3 years younger, i am sure he could play even more beautifully.. The question is can Valverde play more beautifully with squad he has now and retain the effectiveness he has showed so far?
    I am more than happy to consider the x statistics but don't be fooled by the 4-4-2's xG statistics because they're largely influenced by 2 games...

    The 4-4-2 has resulted in an increased xG for Suarez but it has also resulted in Messi's xG significantly tailing off especially with the 4-4-2 diamond so we'd have to dig deeper to to assess if it has been worth it. Also by playing 2 strikers in this narrow formation the expected assists figure goes down so it's not as black and white as just comparing the xG. You have big problems when your xA90 is largely influenced by your full backs (Alba xA90 - 0.32, Digne xA90 - 0.39, Roberto xA90 - 0.27) seeing that Deulofeu (xA90 - 0.33), Denis (xA90 - 0.53) and Dembele (xA90 - 0.81) are not playing much.

    As for Ter Stegen he is being called on too much even if we consider the low xGA where the difference between the 4-4-2 and 4-3-3 is marginal. He has had to make 34 saves from 39 shots of which 22 saves have come from shots inside the box against sides with a average league position of 12.5. That's really nothing to write home about...

    So, If I had to base my opinion on x stats as opposed to what I see I would still dump the 4-4-2 for a 4-3-3 but I would have a front 3 of Denis (LW) - Suarez (CF) - Messi (RW) to get a balance of xG and xA90. That is until Dembele returns at which time I'd switch to a 4-3-3 False 9 again.

    Edit: If Messi is to play on the right wing I'd have Paulinho as a starter in the RCM position due to the chemistry between the two and his innate ability to man mark. He could be the perfect foil to Messi drifting centrally by keeping the left back occupied.
    Last edited by MessiCam; Yesterday at 08:39 AM.